4th Quarter Execution vs. Chicago

In three regular season games last season, the Chicago Bulls beat the Miami HEAT three times, by a total of eight points. And those results didn’t matter one bit.

They wouldn’t have mattered even if Miami had enjoyed the full services of LeBron James and Chris Bosh in one, if Bosh had shot better than 1-for-18 in another or even if they had won the final matchup by one instead of taking a one-point loss. Those regular-season results wouldn’t have meant anything had the Bulls won in the Eastern Conference Finals in five games instead of the HEAT.

All those games told us were that both Chicago and Miami had very good teams, teams that could give themselves good chances of winning. Because they played well, not because they won or lost.

So even though the HEAT beat the Bulls on national television Sunday, 97-93, that doesn’t mean they’re better. That doesn’t mean they’ve even accomplished anything. They won by four points with Luol Deng sitting out, and finished a fourth quarter that had a dozen bounces that could have easily gone Chicago’s way.

The only concrete thing we learned was that Miami is good enough to beat Chicago, and that Chicago is still good enough to beat Miami.

But we can also take a look at the way Miami played and make an educated guess at whether it executed well enough to produce the offense that sustains “good enough”.

In their 24 half-court possessions during the fourth quarter, before Chicago began intentionally fouling, the HEAT earned eight good and/or open shot opportunities and drew four shooting fouls, with the rest of their possessions resulting in either contested shots, very tough shots – such as the three James made with a short shot clock – and turnovers.

That means that despite only scoring points on less than ten of those possessions, Miami produced positive scoring chances on half of its fourth-quarter possessions, missing five of those good looks.

Not bad for a month into the season against a Chicago defense that excels at disrupting the timing of plays, but certainly not satisfactory.

“When we’re playing a team that is as familiar as we are with the Bulls and the Bulls are with us, there aren’t a lot of surprises,” Shane Battier said. “That’s when it comes down to basic fundamental basketball: do you set a good screen, do you get open, do you catch the ball where you wanted it to. Obviously we need to do a better job of that, 20 games in.”

Of those basic fundamental plays, Miami’s two most successful actions were posting up James on the left block and running a pick-and-roll with Dwyane Wade and Bosh.

In the first post-up for James, cross-screens afforded him solid position on the left side of the floor, but as James backed down Ronnie Brewer he was whistled for an offensive foul. Rather than going away from the post after that call, James went and camped out at the same spot – not needing screens – the following possession, this time methodically backing Brewer down for a look at the rim.

Miami then tried to get the same look a third consecutive time.

This is where a good, physical defense like Chicago’s can sometimes disrupt offensive intentions. After giving the ball up to Wade, with both Bosh and Haslem pulling the defense out of the paint, Mario Chalmers cuts through the lane to give James the screen meant to free him in the post. But Brewer anticipates the pick and bumps James off his line, preventing him from getting good position.

To this point, the defense has won because it has prevented Miami from getting the situation it wants. But there is still plenty of time left. About 20 feet from the hoop, James faces up Brewer and, whether by coincidence or intention, he attacks the basket at the moment the floor spacing is at its best – when Noah retreats to the far side.

The drive draws two extra defenders, and when James sees no daylight for a shot, he finds Bosh for an open look. The result, the miss a moment after Bosh catches the ball, matters far less than the fact that the offense succeeded in producing a good shot. It may not be the ideal shot, but its open, and it was created by an aggressive move.

“I think we got good looks,” Bosh, who also echoed Battier’s sentiment that the execution can be better, said. “For the most part when we were unselfish we got great looks, and that’s all you can ask for against a good defense like that.”

Soon after James’ post-ups, Miami turned to pick-and-rolls with Wade and Bosh, as players flattened out the defense along the baseline. The first time, Wade come off the screen, split the defense and drew a foul at the rim. Then he came off the screen and hit a floater in the lane, followed by another drive and foul drawn at the rim.

Watch how the defense reacts when Wade comes off the Bosh screen for a fourth time.

After using the pick, Wade gets the switch as Taj Gibson slides over. At the same time, Derrick Rose’s head is turned, focused on Wade, as is Carlos Boozer, who steps up to provide help defense. It’s not a big defensive shift, as the Bulls aren’t typically ones to over help and get completely out of position, but it’s enough to create room for Haslem along the baseline.

Another decent look, another miss.

Is it perfect offense? No. But there is a degree of success to possessions like this if you’re only allowing opportunities of lesser value on the other end of the floor. Which, in the half-court, the HEAT did.

But in the final minute, on Miami’s last full possession, the Bulls showed how their defense can disrupt even those simple actions Battier was speaking about earlier.

Miami runs this set, with two bigs offering screens on either side of the ballhandler’s defender, often, including in clock-conscious situations like this.

Of course, Boozer doesn’t run up with Haslem on the initial screen, and by remaining back by the paint he deters a move from James with time on the clock. But on Bosh’s pick, the Bulls trap James, wasting three to four seconds of shot clock.

“What we were trying to do was force triggers, and you have to give them a lot of credit, particularly there at the end they stepped up their defense, pushed us another two or three steps,” Spoelstra said.

As with the post-up before where James didn’t get ideal position, the defense is winning the possession to this point because the offense isn’t getting what it wants. And it almost doesn’t matter because James, as with the earlier post-up, doesn’t settle.

The possession doesn’t produce a play we considered a good look, due to the degree of difficulty, but it was still an aggressive move and a miss in the paint. The Bulls disrupted the offensive process, but it was almost an efficient trip down the floor regardless.

Does this alone tell you that Miami was good enough to win? But a first half of thrilling transition offense and a quarter’s worth of solid execution might. That execution doesn’t guarantee 10 wins out of every 10 games against Chicago, but it’s at least good enough to guarantee a reasonable probability of winning. And that’s something a late-January win alone doesn’t do.